Schism I, II inventory

Today David Virtue posted an inventory of US Anglican groups:

• TEC
• Schism II, i.e. ACNA: AMIA, CANA, Uganda, Kenya, FiFNA, ARDF
• Schism I: ACC, APA, APCK, TAC, UECNA, EMC and 52 smaller groups

He also lists the ACC, ACiC and ANiC in Canada.

He has estimated populations (by # of parishes or clergy) for some groupings (AMIA, CANA) and not others (REC, all of Schism I).

According to the 2007 TEC Census (the “red book”), the TEC had about 7,000 parishes, 2.1 million baptized members and average Sunday attendance of 728,000 in 2007. (Some report ASA of 768,000, but that includes non-US dioceses, which is comparing apples and oranges.) Of those, 4 dioceses (with 189 parishes, 49,000 baptized members and ASA of 19,000) left TEC for ACNA — but not all of the parishes in those dioceses left. Of course, other parishes have been leaving TEC before and since — that’s where the AMiA, Uganda and Kenya parishes have come from (whether they left as a congregation or merely as individuals).

ACNA overall claims 100,000 members and an ASA of 69,000. So I’m guessing that the AMiA and the REC actually account for more ACNA parishioners than do the ACNA Four (the 4 TEC refugee dioceses).

Virtue doesn’t provide Schism I figures, but (better than nothing) here’s what Wikipedia lists — presumably from the corresponding websites — for US members of the 6 largest Schism I groups:

• ACC (Anglican Catholic Church): 135 parishes, 10,000 members
• APA (Anglican Province of America): 69 parishes, 6,000 members
• APCK (Anglican Province of Christ the King): 45 parishes and 8,000 members
• The US arm of TAC, which is ACA (Anglican Church in America): 100 parishes, 5,200 members
• UECNA (United Episcopal Church of North America): 18 parishes
• EMC (Episcopal Missionary Church): 50 parishes

So by this, I’m guessing that these big six are about 415 parishes and 35,000 members. Figure the other 52 groupings as 100 parishes, that would give us slightly more than 500 Schism I parishes and about 42,000 members. The ACNA Four had a Sunday participation rate of about 42%, suggesting an ASA of about 18,000 people.

Add these numbers up that gives this estimate of US Anglicans† in pews on an average Sunday:

• TEC (less ACNA Four): 709,000 (89%)
• Schism II: 69,000 (9%)
• Schism I: 18,000 (2%)
• Total: 796,000

Will any of those remaining in TEC eventually leave? Those remaining span the gamut from traditionalists left in the Southeastern US, to social justice progressives who don’t actually believe in the literal truth of the Nicene Creed but find TEC a convenient vehicle for their causes; clearly the latter are more representative of the TEC clergy.

I’d like to think that if the Dennis Canon didn’t exist, the Schism II exodus would increase by 50% or more. But this is just a thought experiment unless some court eventually finds the Canon invalid — since the whole point of the Canon is to avoid a repeat of the Schism I exodus.

Still, will there be bridges for ongoing dialog and cooperation between Schism I, II and fellow travelers stranded behind enemy lines (e.g. to create my new hymnal)? The AAC and FiFNA were supposed to be this, but they now seem to be branches of ACNA. The Anglo-Catholic SSC certainly spans all three, but it seems more of a religious order than a group involved in the various political or jurisdictional disputes of the day.

† Yes I know that Schism I is not in the Anglican Communion and TEC may get kicked out. For now let’s call them all Anglican, since they all claim to be Anglican in some way shape or form.